And without Embargo

And without Embargo...
MANUEL CUESTA MORÚA | La Habana | 14 Oct 2015 - 4:47 pm.

The embargo is an excuse that is wearing thin, but is wielded with
finesse by the regime because it is critical to its model of control
over Cuban society and politics.

What was, in the end, the idea after 1959? Socialism or capitalism?
There is no empirical or theoretical basis for thinking that Cuba would
have both things at once: Stalinist socialism and economic relations
with the US. This is an issue that warrants more than one analysis.

But there is quite a bit of political "diversionism" by the Cuban
government in its struggle against the US embargo. That is, in its dual
meaning, of both "entertaining" and "distracting." It entertains those
who assist it in its endeavor of ideological-political entertainment
inside and outside Cuba , and it distracts those who would exhibit the
Cartesian tendency to doubt its interest in the embargo being lifted; if
one insists so much on a point, then it must be true that he really
desires it.

I do not doubt it. I outright deny it. Why is the fragmentation and
weakening of the embargo implemented by the Obama Administration not
taken advantage of, while at the same time the regime calls for lifting
the whole thing, at one fell swoop? Wouldn't it be better to debilitate
it with the coup de grace that would follow if the Cuban government
actually exploited the opportunities given it to connect Cuban companies
with those American ones already willing to invest at any cost, even
under conditions of modern slavery? Encouraging fellow capitalists in
the United States would be among the most decisive political instruments
to pressure those who have decision-making authorities but refuse to
lift the embargo. And yet, due to the lethargy and vacillation of the
Cuban government, Obama's executive orders may be overturned by the
two-fold forces of idleness and those who reject them.

Slowly but surely in an autocracy, and in a frenetic rush in a democracy?

Examined seriously, what is in the interest of the Cuban government is
to maintain the political tension generated by the embargo, to sustain
the duration of the conflict, and with the intensity necessary allowing
for the internal reordering of the elite at a time of changes to
structures and paradigms, of historical mutation and generational
succession. All three together.

Embracing Obama's offers would accelerate Cuba's economic opening to the
world, at a time when the Cuban government is not yet confident that it
can control the entire process. If the agency Bloomberg has accurately
portrayed the scope of the ruling elite's power, patrimonial control
should never be confused with control over the whole process of economic
management, and at every level. We should not overlook the fact that
opening up to the US economy means a shift from a mercantilist state
model to an open one in Cuba, whose economic structures and dimensions
favor small and medium-sized enterprises rather than monopolies. This
entails certain risks for the island's elite, who are impeding the
strategy, advanced by the US executive, to put an end to the embargo in
two ways: fait accompli and cooperation between the two states.

Conscious that the US Congress, controlled by the Republicans, will
never remove the embargo, the Cuban government doubles down and ratchets
up its plaintive rhetoric to regain its strategic advantage as a victim
in its historical dispute in the US, even as the latter seeks to tone it
down, as Cuba strives to aggravate a political issue that it knows will
not be seriously debated in the short term. And it does so for four
reasons: the US Congress will not grant historic victories to Obama, a
lame duck president, though one very active indeed; the US election
process is now in full swing, such that everything at a standstill will
remain that way; the laws there are respected; and there has been no
internal turnaround in Cuba as a result of the cumulative process of
strategic decisions mobilizing political and economic decision-makers in
the US.

The international community will continue to cling to its wishful
thinking regarding Cuba, until further notice, but politics and
economies are shaped by facts.

The problem is that its arsenal of excuses is the Cuban government's
largest and most valuable political asset. How they are administrated
over time and in different scenarios is a capacity honed by a regime
whose economic and social management have been structurally flawed. And
in many other areas. The embargo is a pretext that is running out of
steam, but needs to be handled with finesse, guile and stalling tactics,
as it is key to the regime's model for control over Cuban society and
politics. It is a variable that made it possible to re-establish and
revitalize a state model that seemed to be done for in 1991.

However, there is no post-Castroism. The embargo ensures its
readaptation. It is as simple as that. This is one of the reasons that I
favor its unilateral elimination. Now. The sooner, the better for Cuba.

Source: And without Embargo... | Diario de Cuba -
http://www.diariodecuba.com/cuba/1444834028_17503.html