Three Elections, One Country Update: After the First Election

Three Elections, One Country Update: After the First Election / Yoani
Sanchez
Translator: Unstated, Yoani Sanchez

perfusionWhat does the voice of Henrique Capriles sound like? A neighbor
asked me a few days ago. I didn't know whether to tell him it was
high-pitched or deep, soft or forceful, because the Cuban media is
careful not to air it. Instead, we only have the opportunity to hear the
agitated shouts of Hugo Chavez, the verbal attacks he throws at his
young opponent. So this morning we saw the leader, who has been in power
for 13 years, celebrating his new electoral triumph. It's clear than a
new six-year term for him is a guarantee of survival for the government
in Havana.

Raul Castro's government had too much invested in the Venezuelan
elections on October 7. He could have lost the irreplaceable support of
his most devoted ally. The Venezuelan subsidy has allowed the General
President to implement, slowing and in a lukewarm way, changes that
constrict the economic sphere. But this type of dependency, once
established, ends up becoming a chronic situation. Neither through
offering farmers the ability to lease land in usufruct, nor the
expansion of licenses for self-employment, has Cuban managed to take its
first steps towards material autonomy nor economic sovereignty. More
than a circumstance, the need for external subsidy is the core of the
Castro regime, the direct result of its inability to successfully manage
the national economy. We can't forget the voluminous support sent from
the Kremlin… now replaced by the Miraflores Palace in Caracas. Once
again a blank check has been signed over to the Plaza of the Revolution,
for six more years.

Fifty-four percent of Venezuelans have ratified Hugo Chavez as leader of
their country, and Raul's regime has some breathing room. But the great
polarization in Simon Bolivar's fatherland will make it more difficult
to publicly sustain the maintenance of Cuba. Havana's government I
looking ahead to complicated months. The election in Venezuela has been
the first in a cycle of three elections that will influence, to a
greater or lesser extent, our national life. The presidential election
in the United States follows immediately in the list of electoral
processes that lie ahead. Mitt Romney has promised a heavy hand with the
Cuban authorities, but Barack Obama could also be very corrosive to the
Cuban system if he deepens his policy of family, academic and cultural
approaches.

The first five-year term of Raul Castro will end in February 2013. Few
are betting that he's thinking of retiring to make way for a younger
figure. These elections, the third that await us in the coming months,
are also the last in importance and in generating expectations. The
process of nominating People's Power delegates and installing them in
the National Assembly has already begun, and this body will approve the
nominations to the Council of State. If the Venezuelan results have
decided whether we are granted billions in subsidies, and our
relationship with our powerful neighbor to the north is in play in those
elections, the Cuban elections smell strongly of a play whose script is
already written. We don't even need surveys or voter polls. There is no
possibility of surprises.

9 October 2012

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