Cuba And The Three Questions

Cuba And The Three Questions / 14ymedio, Carlos Alberto Montaner
Posted on January 3, 2016

14ymedio, Carlos Alberto Montaner, Miami, 2 January 2016 — The Castros
have been in power for 57 years. At this point, general curiosity is
limited to formulating three disturbing questions. Why have they lasted
so long? Is it a failure, as their opponents say, or a success, as their
supporters claim? What will happen after this extremely long-lasting
government, the longest in the history of the Americas?

The Castros' government has been so enduring because it is a
dictatorship that does not seek the consent of society, nor does it
dedicate itself to obeying it. On the contrary, its efforts are
permanently dedicated to directing and controlling it.

The secret of this permanence is to convert people into sheep and to
conveniently keep them penned up. To these ends a formidable apparatus
of counterintelligence is organized, with some 60,000 people and a
proven repressive script. That amounts to 0.5% of the population,
consistent with the infallible formula learned from the German Stasi
which, along with the KGB, was the mother and teacher of the Cuban services.

The other similar regime in the world, North Korea, is also a military
dynasty and has continued for 68 years. The father of that orchestrated
anthill of rhythmic gymnasts was Kim Il-Sung. He started in 1948 and
died, in power, in 1994, but not before bequeathing to museums the
chairs where he had placed his egregious buttocks. He was then followed
by his son Kim Jong-il, and his grandson Kim Jong-un.

North Korean security troops exceed 106,000 members, to control 24
million survivors. More than twice the Cuban population. That police
apparatus, which doesn't do things by halves, has created a system of
political castes called Songbun, dividing people into three groups:
loyals, waverers, and hostiles. The loyals serve as auxiliaries to
counterintelligence in the harassment and surveillance of the other two
sectors. It is no wonder that when Fidel Castro visited North Korea,
according to those who accompanied him, he was fascinated with the
experiment. It seemed like a model country.

Has the Castro regime triumphed or failed? If measured by the ability to
cling to power, it has undoubtedly triumphed. Raul Castro was the
Minister of Defense at age 28, he is now 85 and has never ridden in
anything but good official cars and never ceased to live lavishly with
the royal family. For him and for his group of minions, it has been a
success.

If measured by the influence achieved by the regime, the conclusion is
the same. Venezuela has become a generous colony, meticulously
exploited, and political operatives trained by Cuban intelligence
services control or influence a dozen unfortunate Latin American
countries, to the extent that the Colombian peace process is being
irresponsibly negotiated in Havana.

But if what we take into account is the overall prosperity of the
country and the degree of genuine happiness shared by the whole
population, it has been a resounding failure. Across three generations
Cubans have suffered thousands of executions, tens of thousand of
political prisoners incarcerated, millions of people exiled, and the
government has erected the most unproductive model of wealth creation in
history, while meticulously demolishing the material structure it
inherited. It is "the art of making ruins" at its finest.

In 57 years of absolute control of power, the Castros have aggravated to
the point of martyrdom key elements of daily life: food and access to
drinking water, housing, transportation, communications, electricity,
shoes and clothing. From this grim landscape escape, as always, the
thousands of Cubans currently stranded in Costa Rica, compassionately
cared for by the government and people of that exemplary country.

These dire results are not, in reality, products of evil, but of
ignorance, the ambition of power and the revolutionary arrogance
emanating from Marxist certainties. They were willing to kill and do
harm to remain in power and forced Cubans to live according to the
utopia they lodged in their feverish brains. And so they have devastated
the country.

What will happen in the future? Nothing substantial. As long as the
Castros and their clique do not retire from public life, and as long as
their system – today transformed into military state capitalism –
remains standing, the country will continue to be condemned to the
massive emigration of desperate Cubans and the most radical lack of
productivity.

The basic problem lies in perceptions and in the confidence that
emanates from them. It does not matter if the United States ends the
embargo or substantially increases the number of tourists. It doesn't
matter if President Obama visits Cuba, like the last three popes, and
gives a speech in favor of freedom.

Cubans, as a general rule, do not believe in the system. They do not
believe in their compatriots. They do not believe in the destiny of
their country. They do not believe in those who lead them, and much less
in the capabilities of that sleepy and grim bureaucracy that
imperturbably continues to practice centralized planning. All this will
begin to change after the Castro regime is buried. Never before.

Source: Cuba And The Three Questions / 14ymedio, Carlos Alberto Montaner
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