Cuba's Future Transition to Democracy Can Be a Success

Cuba's Future Transition to Democracy Can Be a Success
Posted: 03/12/2013 9:57 am

It is too early to say how Hugo Chavez's passing will effect
developments elsewhere in the region. One wonders first and foremost
about the consequences on and in Cuba. It is a reminder to the Castro
brothers that power is ephemeral.

Cuba is ready for change. In spite of the efforts by the regime to paint
a rosy picture, eye witnesses tell a sad story. Living conditions are
bad, the economy survives only at the mercy of Venezuela. The
Inter-American Human Rights Commission, in its 2012 a report on Cuba,
speaks of "permanent and systematical violations of the fundamental
rights of Cuban citizens." Ironically, however while the Cuban people
suffer, the regime is internationally stronger than ever.

Progressive rock musicians, like Gorki in the band Porno Para Ricardo,
are prevented from writing and performing freely. The international
pressure for the respect for human rights is weak and inefficient. It
seems like the ethic conscience of the west is comfortable with the
situation. It shouldn't be. Solidarity with the people submitted to
human rights violations by dictatorships is a moral imperative. However,
the opposition movement is gaining voice, even in face of a forgetful
international community. They are increasingly self-confident. Oswaldo
Paya is now dead, but others, like Yoani Sanchez stepped into his place.
Courageous people, who defy threats and speak more and more openly about
the true state of the country. They deserve all the support they ask
for. Cuba is ripe for change.

To understand today's Cuba, one must better study the history of
communist Eastern Europe, rather than that of Latin America. The
resemblance is striking. The inner workings of the regime are similar to
the more conservative countries of the former communist bloc in 1989.

Halfhearted, thus unsuccessful economic reforms, the total control of
the media, isolating the population from the world, harassment of the
political opposition and the communist elite clinging to power. At the
same time a disenchanted population, including a big part of the party
membership, the majority of which does not any longer believe in the
ideology or the future of the system. It is more like East Germany or
Romania, rather than Hungary or Poland of the day. However, the leaders
of Cuba surely understand, that the desire for change swept away even
the harshest regimes of Eastern Europe.

Cuban society is fractured, with the supporters of the regime and those
who reject it altogether representing approximately 25-30 percent each.
It is however the remaining silent 40-50 percent that can make
transition a success or a disaster. The regime is playing on their fears
of the unknown. Having them on the side of change is decisive.

Europe's and more importantly, America's stance is key. Europe needs to
be a lot more outspoken on human rights. The U.S. must have a policy
that takes note of the diverse interests of all stakeholders of
democratic change. First and foremost the majority of Cubans living in
the Island State and help genuinely democratic minded leaders in their
midst, like it did in Eastern Europe, in an open and transparent manner.
It must cater for the interests of its vast, talented, successful and
influential Cuban-American community. The two interests are not similar,
but mostly overlapping. They can and should be aligned in a generous,
smart and forward looking policy. Cuban-Americans must play their cards
smartly. They will be an important, even decisive, but perhaps not
dominant part of transition and future democratic Cuba. They must be
magnanimous. Their most important task will be to accelerate a
transition to knowledge and internet based economy. They must win the
confidence of the majority on the Island. They must also understand that
Castro's successors will single them out as being responsible, when the
inevitable difficulties of the transition arise.

There is a treasure trove of experiences out there to be considered. We
now know how difficult transition from dictatorship to democracy was, in
Spain, in Eastern Europe or South Africa. There are valuable lessons
learned, Cuba need not repeat the mistakes of others. It is easy to
erect institutions of democracy, create a free press, a free and
independent judiciary. It is far more difficult to guard these
institutions. Beware of populism, smart and attractive, but equally
dangerous leaders. It is now also understood, that success of change
hinges on economic success. The wider population will embrace democracy
only if it associates more freedom with a better life. For a country
without natural resources the only source they can exploit, it the
smartness of its people. Only full-fledged democracy can ensure the
frameworks for that. Only strong institutions can mitigate the ugliness
of a privatization. Dreams must be constructive, not destructive.

Revenge can be a political tool in the hands of a few, instant
gratification to the angry masses. It is morally justified for the lost
years, for lost property, for the rejection by the motherland, for the
divided families. However, the happiness gained through revenge will be
short lived. Sowing the debilitating fear of change, must be countered
by wise and magnanimous politics.

We are looking forward to seeing an uncensored Gorki performing in the
Rotilla festival on stage to celebrate freedom. We will be there, with
our guitars.


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