Ignore Raúl Castro’s siren song

Posted on Monday, 10.01.12

Ignore Raúl Castro's siren song
BY JAIME SUCHLICKI
Suchlicki@miami.edu

The Cuban leadership in Havana continues to try to woo the U.S.
administration into providing unilateral concessions to Cuba. The
embargo and the travel ban will be ended, they believe, as a result of
internal pressures and a more accommodating Obama administration.

The latest attempt comes via Louis Farrakhan, the Muslim-American leader
who met this month with Gen. Raúl Castro in Havana. "Raúl Castro asked
me," said Farrakhan, "to let the world know that Cuba is ready to talk
with the U.S. authorities." The same statement has been repeated
recently by several Cuban officials.

Yet the issue is not about talking. The avenues for engagement between
Cuba and the U.S. have never been closed. The U.S. and Cuba signed
anti-hijacking and migration accords. They talk at the U.N., in
Washington, and at cocktail parties. For the U.S. to change its policies
there has to be a willingness on the part of the Cuban leadership to
offer real concessions in the area of human rights and political change.
No country changes its policies without a substantial quid pro quo from
the other side.

We seem to cling to an outdated economic determinism in trying to
understand events in other societies and the motivations of their
leaders. Despite economic difficulties, Raúl Castro does not seem ready
to provide meaningful and irreversible concessions for a U.S.-Cuba
normalization. He may release and exile some political prisoners; he may
offer more consumer goods and food to tranquilize the Cuban population;
but no major structural reforms that would open the Cuban economy and no
political openings.

Raúl's legitimacy is based on his closeness to Fidel Castro's policies
of economic centralization and opposition to the U.S. He cannot now
reject Fidel's legacy and move closer to the U.S. A move in this
direction would be fraught with danger. It would create uncertainty
among the elites that govern Cuba and increase instability as some
advocate rapid change while others cling to more orthodox policies. The
Cuban population also could see this as an opportunity for mobilization
to demand faster reforms.

Raúl is also unwilling to renounce the support and close collaboration
of countries like Venezuela, China, Iran and Russia in exchange for an
uncertain relationship with the U.S. At a time when the U.S. is seeking
regime change in the Middle East, Raúl's policies are more likely to
remain closer to regimes that are not particularly friendly to the U.S.
and that demand little from Cuba in return for generous aid.

Raúl is no Deng Xiaoping and no friend of the U.S. He has been the
world's longest-serving (48 years) minister of defense. He presided over
the worst periods of political repression and economic centralization in
Cuba and is responsible for numerous executions after he and his brother
assumed power. While in Mexico and the Sierra Maestra before reaching
power, Raúl also executed several "enemies."

Raúl has been a loyal follower and cheerleader of Fidel's anti-American
policies and military interventions in Africa and elsewhere. In 1962
Raúl and Soviet Premier, Nikita Khrushchev conspired to surreptitiously
introduce nuclear missiles into Cuba. Raúl supervised the Americas
Department in Cuba approving support for terrorist, guerrilla and
revolutionary groups throughout Latin America. In 1996 he personally
ordered the shooting down of two Brothers to the Rescue unarmed civilian
planes in international waters, killing three U.S. citizens and one
Cuban-American resident from Florida.

I try to teach my students that not all problems in international
relations can be solved. Some require the use of force; others,
significant patience; still others, diplomacy and negotiation. In the
case of Cuba, we should wait for the passing of the gerontocracy in
power now and hope for a new, more flexible leadership later.

Jaime Suchlicki is professor and director, Institute for Cuban and
Cuban-American Studies, University of Miami and the author of "Cuba:
From Columbus to Castro and Beyond."

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/01/3025115/ignore-raul-castros-siren-song.html