Chipping away at Cuba's totalitarian state

Posted on Saturday, 06.08.13

Chipping away at Cuba's totalitarian state
BY MIRTA OJITO
mao35@columbia.edu

These days it is really hard to know whether to feel optimistic or
pessimistic about Cuba. And that's a good thing.

For too many years most exiles have had only one view of the island: It
was all bad and getting worse. The rest of the world looked on with
misty eyes and saw what they wanted to see: a decaying but beautiful
city — it was always about Havana, anyway — that resisted the
embattlement of the sea and of the powerful enemy to the north with
dignity and rumba or rumba and dignity, depending on the optic.

But the narrative has changed.

Dissidents and independent voices from the island have been allowed to
travel and return, seemingly, without consequences or actos de repudio.
Yet, some can't leave, either because the Cuban government does not
allow them to or because the U.S. government refuses to grant them visas.

As renowned Harvard professor Jorge Domínguez said recently in a talk in
New York, "Both governments have never missed an opportunity to miss an
opportunity."

Internet service began on Tuesday, and Cubans can now visit more than
100 computer centers around the country to go online, but at a very
steep cost. In a country where the average salary is $20 a month, most
people can't spend $5 for an hour of Internet access.

The island has a shrinking, aging population. People are not
reproducing. In part, Domínguez said, because Cubans are worried about
their economic circumstances and about the future. Studies have shown
that one out of five Cubans lives in poverty — and that's according to a
definition of poverty that most of us would consider extreme (people
whose income falls below $4 a month, don't grow their own food, don't
get free lunch at work and do not receive any remittances from abroad).

On the other hand, some 400,000 Cubans now have licenses that allow them
to operate their own businesses. Assuming they hire others, Domínguez
estimates that about 2 million Cubans are independently employed in
small to medium enterprises financed, mostly, by the exile community.
(Remittances remain the third most important revenue for the Cuban
economy, after the income from the exportation of services, such as
doctors, and the dollars pouring in from 2.5 million tourists a year).

However, not everyone who wants to be self-employed can obtain a
license. The government has been very specific about the 178 categories
allowed. For instance, teachers are not on the list, but tutors are;
carpenters can repair furniture but they can't make any because there is
no wood.

Though Domínguez said Raúl Castro is chipping away at the totalitarian
state, the fact is the state remains in control. There is one party, no
recognized opposition, no freedom of expression or assembly and none of
the markers that indicate that the island is moving toward democracy.

Still, gays have finally been accepted (even Fidel has apologized for
his persecution of homosexuals) and Raúl has abolished the dreaded
"volunteer" work.

The United States and Cuba continue to cooperate amicably — and despite
the rhetoric of both countries — in a variety of ways. Three out of four
chickens consumed on the island come from the United States, Domínguez
said, thanks to an exception of the embargo that allows agricultural
exports to Cuba. It's a perfect deal for Americans: Cuba must pay cash.

Cuba is on the list of countries that support terrorists, yet the two
countries cooperate on a variety of security issues, mainly immigration.
Rafters caught at sea are routinely taken back to the island.

The most important change, of course, is that the Castro brothers have
given up power or announced they will. Fidel ceded to Raúl, and Raúl has
appointed his successor, Miguel Díaz Canel. There is a lot wrong with
this equation. Modern, progressive leaders trust their people to make
these decisions. Modern, progressive people demand their right to make
those decisions.

And here's where my pessimism seeps in.

From the good old days of flawed capitalism the country moved on to an
exalted state of ruthless communism only to arrive to the more familiar
territory of banana republics — but without the bananas — where a
rudderless oligarchy controls a mostly impoverished population and
blames the United States for its failures.

When Cuban blogger Yoani Sánchez was in New York almost three months ago
she spoke a great deal about walking through the doors that the
government had opened a crack. This past week, Domínguez used the same
analogy. Can he, meaning Raúl Castro, push this door wider and open the
windows as well?

No one knows. But the fact that smart people who study Cuba carefully
are asking the question is important. It means there is hope. It means
the fate of the nation remains in flux, and flux is better than stasis.
In metallurgy, "flux" is a purifying agent. That's exactly what the
island needs: a cleaning agent to make sense of these muddled, confusing
signs, with some arrows pointing to the future and others straight to
the past.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/06/08/v-fullstory/3439588/chipping-away-at-cubas-totalitarian.html