Sunday, August 9, 2015

Seventh Cuban Communist Party Conference and Electoral Reform - Continuity and Succession or Disruption

Seventh Cuban Communist Party Conference and Electoral Reform:
Continuity and Succession or Disruption / Somos+, Alberto Bruno Diaz
Posted on August 9, 2015

Somos+, Alberto Bruno Diaz, 28 July 2012 — At its Tenth Plenum, the
Central Committee of the Cuban Communist Party (PCC) agreed to hold its
Seventh Congress in April 2016 and to adopt a new electoral law before
the general elections of 2018, among other measures. This could mark the
first intergenerational transition of power at the highest levels since
the 1959 revolution. The evidence so far suggests it will be an orderly
process, with the promotion of of Miguel Diaz-Canel — now the number-two
man in the government —to the post of first secretary in the party,
according to Agence France Press (AFP) analyst Arturo Lopez-Levy of the
Center for Global Studies at the University of New York.
"The experience of recent years suggests that the top leadership in Cuba
intends to hand power over to younger militant cadres within the party
without constitutional amendments or concessions to opposition groups,"
said Jorge Duany of Florida International University in an interview
with AFP.
Analysts anticipate that the Seventh Party Congress will mark the
departure of the old guard of the Politburo: the PCC's number two man,
Jose Machado Ventura, interior minister Abelardo Colome, Commander
Ramiro Valdes and General Ramon Espinosa, among others.

The younger group is headed by Diaz-Canel, 54, who has been Cuba's
senior vice-president since 2013. It also includes 54-year-old Politburo
member and economics minister Marino Murillo, 57-year-old foreign
minister Bruno Rodriguez and 50-year-old PCC first secretary Mercedes
López Acea.

The armed forces minister, 72-year-old General Leopoldo Cintra Frías,
could stay on to guarantee a seemless transition.

Though there is currently no information about what will be discussed at
the Seventh Party Congress, nor anything about the new electoral law,
analysts do not foresee radical changes. López-Levy rejects the idea
"that direct popular elections for president is on the reform agenda
since it would involve a radical change to the (political) system."

According to Cuba's 1976 constitution, the Council of State is the body
which acts on behalf of the National Assembly of People's Power when it
is not in session by executing its agreements and fulfilling other
constitutional duties such as representing the Cuban state at the
national and international levels. It is a collegial body in which
decisions are made by simple majority vote of its members.
Some believe the fate of a Diaz-Canel presidency will in essence depend
on his ability to ensure economic growth and social stability, an
enormous task. I believe it will depend on continued institutionalized
repression, denial of Cubans their civil rights and an expensive foreign
policy marketing campaign by the government in Havana.
However, one modification is visible is on the horizon. The question is
whether the new electoral law will serve as the the basis for an
"updating" of the Cuban political system.

In his closing address to the First National Party Conference, army
general Raúl Castro ruled out any possibility of multi-party elections
in 2012.
He stated, "We will defend the one-party system against demagogic
diversions and the commercialization of politics. If we make choices
based on sovereignty, with the respect and support of the people, the
(only) option is that of a single party."

In February 2013 General Castro announced an upcoming change to the
electoral law, noting that " it is not healthy to be continually
reformulating the nation's constitution. However we carry out
constitutional reform, we must do so within a reasonable period of time."

It is worth remembering the current electoral law emerged from the 1992
reforms which revised portions of the 1976 constitution.

The constitution's last article mandates that any significant change to
the legislative branch, requires "ratification by an affirmative vote of
the majority of citizens in accordance with electoral law through a
referendum called for that purpose by the Assembly."

There is one detail the president of Cuba did not overlook: "Some
questions can be resolved by the legislature itself. Other more
important ones require ratification by a favorable vote by a majority of
citizens in a referendum."

Anyone who understands the formal mechanisms of Cuban politics has known
since 2013 that moving the National Assembly of People's Power back to
the semi-circular chambers of the Capitol means the number of delegates
— currently at 605 — must be reduced.*

Why is a change to the electoral law in the works? Is it simply intended
to reduce the size of the National Assembly so that the number of
delegates does not exceed the number of seats in Havana's National Capitol?

It is somewhat like the story of the husband** who comes home to find
his wife cheating on him with his best friend in his own living room: he
throws the sofa off the tenth floor balcony. It was the sofa that was to
blame.

Translator's notes:

*The Capitolio, Cuba's national capitol building until the Cuban
revolution, has been under restoration since 2013 in preparation for a
planned move by the National Assembly into the building.

** "Throwing out the sofa" is a very common Cuban expression, derived
from this joke. For Cubans, the expression needs no further explanation.

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